站内深度文章
滚动快讯与深度背景
先看新闻，再顺着同一条事件链看航运、油价与地缘风险。
霍尔木兹海峡在哪里，为什么它的地理位置如此关键？
用一篇短文讲清楚这条连接波斯湾与阿曼湾的狭窄水道，以及为什么一个小小海峡足以牵动全球能源市场。
- 这条海峡是多数海湾产油国通向外海的唯一海上出口。
- 进出海峡的航道非常狭窄，航行秩序高度依赖规则与协同。
为什么霍尔木兹海峡会牵动原油与 LNG 市场？
从油轮流量到布伦特油价、运费、保险与炼厂情绪，这条链条是如何传导的。
- 全球超过 20% 的石油与 LNG 出口要经过这条海峡。
- 在实物流真正中断之前，风险溢价通常已经开始上升。
围绕霍尔木兹海峡，哪些航运风险信号最值得盯？
给船东、交易员与分析师的一份实用清单：在全面中断前，海上压力通常会如何先暴露出来。
- 优先盯住护航、绕航和阿曼湾附近的异常停顿。
- 保险与租船措辞的变化，往往早于流量数据本身。
一次“霍尔木兹可能关闭”的恐慌，对交易员到底意味着什么？
所谓“海峡可能关闭”的恐慌，更多是风险重估，而不是立刻归零的通行结果。要读懂两者差别。
- 新闻层面的恐慌，可能提前数天甚至数周跑在实物中断之前。
- 价格波动往往反映的是保险、时效与信心冲击。
最新头条
Iran blames US for Hormuz dispute as both sides confirm ongoing talks
Iran reports no new US strikes overnight into Saturday for the first time in two weeks.
US expands Iran attacks as Trump warns Tehran and Houthis over Red Sea strikes
No end to fighting in sight as Revolutionary Guards launch drones at targets in Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait The US has struck targets across Iran, reaching as far as the Caspian Sea, as Donald Trump threatened “major military punishment” for Tehran and its Houthi allies in Yemen for extending the war to a second shipping chokepoint at the entrance to the Red Sea. As Iran retaliated on Friday with missile and drone fire against US bases and allies across the region, the New York Times reported that Tehran had rejected a US ceasefire proposal delivered by the Iraq prime minister, Ali al-Zaidi. This despite the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, claiming a day earlier that Iran was begging for a ceasefire. Iraq later disputed the report. Continue reading...
Julian Leeser says his son no longer feels safe at Jewish events – as it happened
This blog is now closed Get our breaking news email , free app or daily news podcast Australian exports sent to the US will be hit with a 12.5% tariff as the US president imposes levies on more than 80 nations. The Trump administration unveiled the latest tranche of tariffs for countries over their “failure to impose and effectively enforce a prohibition on the importation of goods produced with forced labour”. This, in our view, makes no sense. Forced labour is definitely something which needs to be combated around the world, so we support that objective. We absolutely need to see the strait of Hormuz be open and for freedom of navigation to happen there, for commercial shipping to be allowed through, and we very much call on Iran to allow that to be the case. We need to see a restoration to the normal global fuel supply chain because it’s having a significant impact around the world. Continue reading...
Houthi attacks raise fears of wider Middle East conflict and more global economic damage
The Iran-backed group in Yemen has threatened to target Saudi vessels in a vital shipping route.
Yemen's Houthis attack Saudi tanker as US launches more Iran strikes
The Iran-backed group, which previously announced a "maritime embargo" against Saudi Arabia, also claims to have hit another vessel.
Trump threatens to target Iran's bridges and power plants if Hormuz attacks persist
Donald Trump says the US will respond any time Iranian forces shoot at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz.
Australia to warn China it won’t be bullied by ‘provocative‘ actions as it builds military and nuclear arsenal
Foreign minister Penny Wong will deliver speech criticising China’s recent launch of a nuclear-capable submarine-launched missile Get our breaking news email , free app or daily news podcast Penny Wong will warn China that Australia and other neighbouring nations will not be bullied by its “provocative” actions, after its involvement in another “destabilising and dangerous” incident this week. The foreign affairs minister – who will deliver the address on Thursday in the Philippines, where the 59th Asean foreign minister’s meeting is being held – will also caution world leaders against placing a toll on the strait of Hormuz after both Iran and the US threatened to do amid the protracted conflict. Continue reading...
Why Iran is risking so much over the Strait of Hormuz
None of the choices facing Iran’s leaders offer a clear path to victory, as the conflict with the US continues.
Trump retreat over Hormuz tolls suggests he is struggling to end Iran war
The abrupt about-face from the US president was the latest twist in a conflict that has now lasted more than four months.
Watch: The clash between US and Iran for control of the Strait of Hormuz
The BBC's Barbara Plett Usher examines the latest tensions over the key international shipping channel.